Towards Real-World Validation of a Physics-Based Ship Motion Prediction Model

Abstract

The maritime industry aims towards a sustainable future, which requires significant improvements in operational efficiency. Current approaches focus on minimising fuel consumption and emissions through greater autonomy. Efficient and safe autonomous navigation requires high-fidelity ship motion models applicable to real-world conditions. Although physics-based ship motion models can predict ships' motion with sub-second resolution, their validation in real-world conditions is rarely found in the literature.

This study presents a physics-based 3D dynamics motion model that is tailored to a container ship and compares its predictions against real-world voyages. The model integrates vessel motion over time and accounts for its hydrodynamic behavior under different environmental conditions. The model's predictions are evaluated against real vessel data both visually and using multiple distance measures. Both methodologies demonstrate that the model's predictions align closely with the real-world trajectories of the container ship.

Why it matters

A model that has only been validated in simulation tells you little about what happens at sea. This paper closes part of that gap: it documents how a physics-based motion model behaves against real voyage data — the kind of validation evidence that autonomous navigation and voyage optimization systems should be required to show.